Students Respond to Lord Browne's Proposals

Further to the publication of Lord Browne's report last week, there has been a lot of reflection on how this will impact upon future students' higher education choices. We have deliberately kept a low profile on this matter for the time being because the implications are far wider than increasing the likelihood of Brits going abroad.

The Student Room website has just published a survey of 1300 students (it is unclear how many of these students are still to enter university) and their assessment of Lord Browne's recommendations. While it is clear that the Lib Dems won't be winning many friends amongst the young, there are some other results which corroborate what we have been hearing from other sources.

73% of all students will look abroad when thinking about their higher education choices. Admittedly, for many English students abroad seems to mean Scotland but there are signs that a wide range of countries from USA to Netherlands could be about to benefit from increasing applications from British students.

We will see whether this materialises. However, it is clearer than ever that schools must offer advice about international higher education as one of the range of options open to their students.

Lord Browne's University Funding Review Published Today

What does the tuition fee review mean for British students?

12th October 2010

Today Lord Browne's report in to university funding has been published.

There had been much speculation in to the precise recommendations he would make but there was never any doubt that higher education would become more expensive for British students.

It is too early to know when any changes to tuition fees will be made, not least because any change still has to be voted into law. At the moment, these are only recommendations. However, there has been so much discussion about graduate taxes, upper limits on fees etc in recent months that it seems fairly certain the government was trying to prepare the ground for the conclusions it was expecting. So while Lib Dem MPs might have some soul searching to do, it seems fairly clear that Lord Browne's recommendations will be accepted in their entirety. After all, it was the previous Labour government that set in motion this review (and postponed its reporting date until after the election because it knew the recommendations could only be unpalatable to many people).

So, there are still a number of unanswered questions regarding the change in tuition fees:

• When will they be introduced? The consensus seems to be from 2012 but we have never heard anyone say it will not be from 2011. The funding crisis in university education is about to get a lot worse with the Comprehensive Spending Review later this month so we imagine that many universities will be pushing for higher fees to be introduced as soon as possible.
  
• Will there be any guarantees offered by universities? If students are being asked to invest in their higher education on the basis of improved employment prospects will they have any recourse if these prospects fail to materialise, or if they have been misled by a university's claims. Will we see the introduction of a "gainful employment rule" such as the one under discussion in the USA.
• Will the increased revenue from tuition fees be ringfenced for tuition? Will students' contribution to university funding be invested in the areas where they benefit directly or will it be used to subsidise research activity?
  

We have always argued that British students should go abroad for some or all of their undergraduate education for a variety of positive reasons. However, it now appears as if this will be a necessity for many people.

The introduction of higher fees will herald a new range of financial support for the least well-off in society. The most well-off clearly have the least to fear from increased interest rates on student loans as they are far less likely to need them. It is those students caught in the middle who are likely to find themselves squeezed the most. Lord Browne's report does offer assurances to students who will not go on to earn vast sums in their careers. The threshold under which students do not pay back their loans will rise as part of his recommendations. However, debt is still debt and there will be no escaping it particularly as students look to take on mortgages in the future. Student loans will no longer even have the attraction of being a cheap form of borrowing.

In the last week, following articles in The Observer and in an Independent supplement, we have experienced an unprecedented increase in the number of visitors to our site. We believe that vast numbers of the "squeezed middle" are looking to avoid the uncertainties of English higher education. Student debt is not a necessity; it is possible to gain a degree abroad without taking out huge loans. While it will never be possible to live free of financial obligations for three or four years, there is no reason why you should spend decades paying for them. We will be adding more opportunities of this nature to our site over the coming weeks.

What to do with the 150,000 students who missed out?

Or rather, what can the estimated 150,000 students who missed out at university do? We addressed in an earlier post the inadequacy of government advice suggesting setting up a business or taking an unplanned gap year. A new publication through the Independent, Horizons 2010, has a few other suggestions. Naturally it includes our perspective on international higher education options but as a whole it is a good guide to some of the more constructive options out there.

Horizons 2010 has been published as an ezine, which looks great but does mean it is hard to link to. You will have to flick through the virtual pages to page 18 to find our contribution but the whole publication is worth a look.

More Options for Studying in the Netherlands

We have recently been advised of courses available to British students at INHOLLAND University of Applied Science. All courses in English are taught at their Amsterdam (Diemen) campus. Courses are available in the following subjects:

• International Business and Management
• Information Technology with Engineering
• International Leisure Management
• Tourism & Recreation Management

We will be adding more detail to our website about these courses in the near future but it is perfectly feasible for British students to apply this week and be accepted to start next month.

You can find more information at the Inholland website.

Five reasons why taking a gap year is not the answer to university shortages and clearing

Below follows the text of an article written for British students in response to press reports that students should take a gap year in order to alleviate the consequences of restrictions in UK higher education institutions.

In the right circumstances (and with the right planning) gap years can be an incredibly rewarding experience. However, as a short term solution to the problem of excess demand for university places, they may actually be worse than useless.

If you find yourself in the unfortunate position of not having a place at university this year and the only advice offered to you is to take a gap year, you would be well advised to ignore it. Here’s why:

1. Lots of your peers have been planning their gap year for months, if not years. Arranging relevant work placements or taking part in volunteer schemes that assist in developing your curriculum vitae can be hard at the best of times. If you are looking for an opportunity to start next month, you can be certain that there will be thousands of others in the same position as you. Looking even further on the gloomy side, this will give you excellent experience of the dispiriting process that this year’s graduates are going through when looking for that first job post-university, with up to 70 applications for every graduate vacancy. On the bright side, however, if you delay your start at university by one year, your chances of graduating in a recovered economy will probably have improved slightly.

2. Taking a year out is no guarantee that you will get a place at your chosen university next year. Yes, you will have your grades already which might make things slightly easier, but there will be intense pressure on university places next year (unless there is a massive increase in funding for undergraduate education – don’t hold your breath!) and who is to say you will be any luckier then. It is quite realistic that next year’s students will need even higher grades as universities start to see the impact of the new A* grade.


3. Is waiting a year to get on with your education a good idea? Why take a gap, particularly one that you haven’t planned and didn’t wish for. Maybe you will lose focus and end up deciding not to go to university or maybe you will end up writing the year off and sit around just waiting for your place to materialise. Both of these outcomes are possible if you do not have a clear plan and objective to your (at least) one year out. Both of them are worse than almost anything else you could do at this point in your life.

4. Money Part 1. Maybe you will find a job that pays a reasonable wage that enables you to put some money aside for going to university. Ordinarily this would be a sensible thing to do but, by taking a year out to save money you may end up losing money in the long run because...


5. Money Part 2....As you will know there is a review of university funding taking place right now. You may have seen articles talking about a graduate tax in the news. This is just one of several possible changes to how you pay for your degree. There is not only uncertainty over what changes will come into effect but also when they will happen. If they start from October 2011, you might find that university will cost you a lot more if you defer entry for a year. One estimate is that if a graduate tax is introduced, your degree could cost you closer to £50,000 in tax than the current £30,000 in debt. Now, there is no guarantee that this will happen but there is certainly no guarantee that it won’t, either.

So, these are some reasons why you should think very seriously about following advice to take a gap year. In the right circumstances, with the right planning it could still be the best route for you.

But what else can you do if you find the worst happens?

Well, here are two suggestions – one from the government and one from me.

1. Start a business – There will inevitably be some stories of students leaving school this year who go on to found massively successful businesses. There will be very little press coverage of businesses that fail. Starting a business is a risk. It could be the best thing you ever do or it could be an alternative way of racking up extensive debts. I would argue that it is somewhat irresponsible to encourage school leavers or even recent graduates to set up a business unless that is part of their existing plan. It is also somewhat baffling that David Willetts, Minister for Universities (within the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills), seems to be implying that a degree is unnecessary preparation for setting up your own business as you can just as well do so without one. Where that leaves university business schools is unclear.

2. Study Abroad – We could list many reasons why you should think about studying abroad but the current situation means that you should investigate fully all options open to you. Even at this late stage we know of universities in Europe where you can study in English and get an excellent quality degree. There is no need to wait a year before entering higher education. Yes, your options are quite limited at this time of year and you may be better off waiting a while before going to do a full degree but there are lots of shorter courses that you could quite comfortably take instead of a typical gap year. For example, you might decide to learn Mandarin Chinese or take some courses at university in Canada while working in a ski resort. Rather than assume that a gap year has to mean a gap from education, have a look at some of the options abroad, ranging from getting straight on with your degree to doing something completely different yet still part of your higher education journey.

Can British students afford to wait for a place at a British university if they miss out during clearing this year?

As universities announce that there will be very few, if any, places available during clearing this year, British students are advised to look abroad to continue their education. Many universities in Europe have places available this autumn and, farther afield, Australian and New Zealand universities welcome applications from British students in time for the 2011 academic year.

In recent years, studying overseas has become well established in subjects such as medicine, dentistry and veterinary medicine. In 2010 there has also been an increase in students looking abroad as a way of differentiating themselves from their peers and gaining experience vital to a successful career. The increased presence of EU students at British universities is a visible reminder that the graduate job market is highly international.

When government advice amounts to deferring entry or starting up a business, it is clear that there is no strategy to actively assist school leavers who miss out on a place at university this year. We advise any student who wishes to get on with their education without interruption to look at options abroad. These may often work out cheaper than studying in England even before a further rise in the cost of university education. In the long term, studying abroad could be the smartest way to avoid the imposition of a graduate tax but it will definitely be excellent preparation for an international career.

Clearing can be a frustrating process for students and teachers alike. When looking for the right move, the answer could simultaneously be further away and closer at hand.

10,000 Fewer Places at University This Year

Today it was announced that only half of the additional places at universities expected in October 2010 will materialise. The new government has announced that it will be cutting £118m that Labour had made available to fund these extra students.

It was already clear that student demand far outstrips the places available for new undergraduates; now it seems that even more students will be disappointed in their search for a suitable university in 2010 and beyond.

As this topic continues to make headlines we anticipate that demand for international higher education will grow significantly.

Launch of 2010 Attitudes to International Education Survey

Today sees the launch of the 2010 Attitudes to International Education Survey. You can take part in the survey here.

This is the third year that the survey has run and we use it primarily to gauge the effectiveness of communicating information about international higher education to future undergraduate students.

If you would like to learn more about the survey please feel free to get in touch.

Tomorrow the Election, Next Week the Tuition Fee Debate

One subject has been studiously ignored by politicians in the UK general election: what will happen to tuition fees over the lifetime of the next parliament and beyond. While many individual MPs and candidates have signed pledges indicating that they will not support an increase in fees from the current £3,000 plus inflation this is unlikely to have any impact on reality.

Without an alternative plan for funding the expansion of higher education it is almost certain that the cap on fees will be first raised and then removed. Otherwise we are likely to see more universities experiencing financial difficulties. The University of Cumbria has already applied for emergency funding from HEFCE and has had to reduce the facilities it offers students; while the circumstances of this situation are unique to Cumbria it is likely that other universities will face similar shortfalls.

One proposal put forward by Lord Browne,who chairs the cross party review, is that fees will be allowed to rise by £1,000 per annum until they reflect the cost of the relevant course. In this scenario we could end up with different level of fees to reflect the relative cost of teaching arts or sciences, for example. This would see British universities adopting the Australian finanical model.

This approach differs from lifting the upper limit to between £5,000 and £7,000 which had previously been thought the most likely outcome.

Uncertainty about tuition fees is likely to remain for some time. With all political parties having no immediate plans to reduce fees (any Lib Dem plan to phase out fees will take some time to introduce even in the event of their making substantial gains in tomorrow's election) the only certainty is that they will rise. The bigger issue in terms of access to higher education will be any change to the interest rate payable on student loans; this, too, it seems is likely to rise in the near future meaning that the overall cost of education will be even harder to judge.

What does this mean for international universities? Universities in Australia, New Zealand and, to a lesser extent, Canada and the USA will increasingly be seen as viable alternatives for those students who can finance their entire higher education from their own or their family's resources.

For European universities, we expect a continuing increase in interest not just to state universities but also to private universities. This trend is currently being driven by the shortage of places at British universities and many careers advisors in schools are actively looking to find places abroad for this year's school leavers. One of the unintended consequences of EU membership is that British students can find far more generous higher education opportunities in other countries. In that context perhaps the most important development in the last weeks has been the European Court of Justice's decision to allow some European countries to restrict the number of students coming from other EU member states.

Degree Exodus?

Well, that is perhaps stretching a point but an article in yesterday's Sunday Times(scroll to bottom for relevant section) shows that European universities are seeing an increase in applications from British students.

Universities in Ireland, The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway are probably the most likely beneficiaries but English-language education in other countries such as France, Spain and Italy could also see an increase in applications.

I would suggest that the increase in interest is motivated primarily by the shortage of places available at English universities because the "study now, pay later" financial model that tuition fees and student loans facilitate means that very few students are confronted with the financial reality of studying in this country; failing to find a place is a very different matter. As indicated in our previous post, when the only careers advice available is to defer university entry, students will start to look elsewhere for support.

We have now reached the Easter holidays but in the last two months I have spent almost every day in schools throughout England. Some of these schools have mentioned that their students are all placed (subject to grades) this year. However, there are an increasing number of schools who are worried about their Year 13 students and we are finding a greater willingness to consider international education.

Is this the best careers advice we can give British students?

On Wednesday this week Mary Curnock Cook, the Chief Executive of UCAS confirmed that as many as 50,000 students with good A’ level grades will miss out on places at UK universities this year. This is the first acknowledgement that it is the “better” students who are likely to be unsuccessful in their application or disappointed in the type of university that will accept them.

The only advice offered by UCAS is to defer entry for at least one year before reapplying, or think about going to university later in life. Aside from the fact that the UK job market makes it almost impossible to enter many professions without a degree, does asking students to wait until universities are ‘ready’ for them qualify as sensible careers advice?

While this will undoubtedly prove a boon to the GAP year industry it is unlikely to assist students who are increasingly conscious of the financial impact of higher education or the difficulty of finding employment as a young person in today’s economy.

For many students there is another option: going to university abroad. Many high quality universities around the world are ready and able to accept applications from British students. While there is still likely to be a high level of competition for places at the best international universities, many students will find that they are able to get on with their life plans without an unintended and unwished-for hiatus.

British universities are not the only route open to British students. There are plenty of alternatives in countries as nearby as France, Ireland and the Netherlands or further afield in USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

A Star Future has been advising schools and students about such opportunities since 2006 and we anticipate a busy few months.

Return of the Top Universities Fair

I will be visiting the Top Universities Fair in London on Friday 12th March to visit Universita Bocconi and University of Newcastle who are sending over representatives for the event. It is at Earls Court this year which means we are unlikely to see a repeat of the long waiting times when the fair was at the Science Museum last year. While at least half of the exhibitors are actually UK universities there is a fair representation of international universities so it promises to be worth a look.

As I have posted earlier on this blog, A Star Future remain unconvinced by the value of such events for promoting international education. However, as international education becomes a more attractive option for many British students this will change at some point.

If you are going to the fair and would like to meet up either send me an email or tweet me at astarfuture.

First Major Report in to British International Student Mobility

Earlier this month the Department for Business Innovation & Skills Research Paper No. 8 was published. Entitled "Motivations and Experiences of UK Students Studying Abroad" this is the first analysis of the current situation relating to British students and international higher education prepared for the British government.

As recently as 1975, the United Kingdom was the sixth largest country in terms of the number of its students participating in international higher education. International higher education mobility has changed beyond all recognition over the last 35 years but it is worth remembering that British students were once one of the more numerous groupings at universities around the world.

In the first part of the report, the authors of the research paper have collated a wide range of data sources in an attempt to find an accurate indication of the number of outbound "diploma seeking" students. I have previously tried to find the same information and have found it to be an extremely frustrating process; there is no central indication from the UK government as to the numbers of students abroad and indeed the government is rarely involved in the process of assisting diploma seeking students as opposed to credit seeking (exchange) students who regularly take part in officially supported programmes, such as Erasmus. In spite of these difficulties the estimate of British students abroad tallies with my own knowledge; around 1.5-2% of British students seek to gain their degree at international universities. This figure does not include British citizens who have been ordinarily resident in the country where they are studying prior to commencing their studies.

The final part of the report addresses the experiences of British students currently enrolled in international universities. This gives some interesting insights in to the motives and experiences of those students and is worth reading in its entirety. The only comment I would pass on the 560 students interviewed (and it is one mentioned in the report) is that they are mostly studying at elite universities, thus potentially overstating the importance of a university's ranking in the decision-making process of the internationally mobile student. Perhaps unsurprisingly the students interviewed seem to benchmark their choice of international university against a UK equivalent (for example, Trinity College Dublin = Durham or Edinburgh). Our own research still suggests that quality is the single most important factor in choosing an international university.

Where I do feel more capable of passing comment on this report is the second section addressing the intentions of current British students towards applying to international universities. Since 2006 I have prepared an annual survey* of student intentions in the United Kingdom so this aspect of the new report is not unique as its authors claim. The students interviewed for the report are Year 13 students and therefore in their last year at school. The report does not make clear at what time of the school year the students were interviewed but presumably it was after applications had been made to British universities. Our own research concentrates mostly on Year 12 students' intentions because we have found that Year 13 students are far more likely to have overstated their intentions, particularly when asked questions such as whether they had thought about applying to international universities. Previous studies into study abroad intentions amongst undergraduates have also suffered from this bias. With Year 12 students it is easier to ascertain whether they are actually thinking about applying.

The difficulty in interpreting statistics that suggest that approximately 3% of British students have applied to study abroad and that a further 10.7% may have thought about it is that most of these students will not have had access to any information about international education (about 56.5% of respondents indicated this. In our own research, 50% of respondents received no information other than through A Star Future). With access to greater information it is possible that the number of students thinking about international education will increase but the number actually applying may not change at all. It would certainly increase the range of opportunities attracting interest. Students with no further information will naturally tend to consider the USA as the most available alternative. However, we have identified significant interest in countries such as the Netherlands which is only awakened once students are aware that is possible to study in English there and at a greatly reduced cost. I would certainly agree with the authors of the report in saying that the level of interest in international higher education opportunities is higher than many schools career and guidance teachers would expect.

I agree with the overwhelming conclusion of the report that high quality international universities are the most likely to attract British students. As a result the students who are most likely to study abroad are the highest achievers, although the single most important indicator is prior international experience in the family.

The report also addresses concerns of "brain drain" but these are beyond our scope for comment. We are far more interested in the implications on how international universities should promote themselves to British students. We have long been aware that quality is a major factor that international universities cannot ignore in their marketing in the United Kingdom. However, we believe that quality should be seen far more broadly than simple rankings and positions in league tables. Although our market research and the interviews in the report both reveal quality to be the single most important factor, we have also discovered that league tables are very unpopular with British students; perhaps this is a result of their having been measured and ranked from a very young age. There is scope for quality to be presented other than as a simple number in a table.

In conclusion, it is encouraging to see that the British government is now willing to look beyond credit mobility in terms of supporting outbound student mobility. In our opinion there has never been a contradiction between British excellence in higher education and British students seeking their degree abroad; it is fair to say we have encountered other interpretations.

In the current economic climate it seems unlikely that any funding will be made available to make a positive impact on the numbers studying abroad. It would seem far more likely that the unintended consequences of government education policy (for example, shortage of places on popular courses, a further increase in tuition fees, any perceived drop in quality of UK universities resulting from underfunding or overcrowding) will be the main drivers of British outbound student mobility in the short term.

For further information about A Star Future research please contact us.